Murwell Football

Murwell Sports Predictor

Remaining Games
Only Whole Numbers
Wins Needed
Only Whole Numbers
Avg Win %
Begin with Whole #
3 or Less Decimals

See Probability
Odds Of Winning
Needed Games

%

About Sports Predictor

A common issue for sports fans is to see what the odds are for your team to win the league. We turn on sports shows and inevitably there's some guy reporting that there's a 72.6% chance that "fillintheblank" will win the league. It all sounds very impressive, but they never explain how it's done. We just shake our head and go either: "Yeah, that sounds about right." Or, "No way!"
This predictor is a simple way to come up with your own odds. It's based off of the binomial distribution. Without trying to bore you too fast, think about flipping a coin. Flip a coin 10 times, what are the odds that heads will come up at least 4 times. Or in sports lingo, "there are 10 games left, and we need at least 4 wins, what are the odds." A coin flip is easy. The odds for each flip is 50/50, so for at least 4 heads out 10 flips, the percentage is 82.81%. Sporting events are more complicated in that the odds for each game is not necessarily 50/50. It's your job, if you wish to accept it, to come up with that "average win percentage." Then just plug-in the remaining games and the games needed to win. Click and get the probability. Have fun.